WP 2 – Scenarios and interventions

WP 2 will evaluate the effects of climate change: both in terms of water availability and water demand. The models will be driven by climate projections representing the expected evolution of the main meteorological drivers. Such climatic scenarios, resulting from regional climate models, are already available for the case-study areas, but will be analyzed at local scale and compared against measurements of historical meteorological stations, in order to assess their reliability during a control period. Scenarios for future tourism development will be produced based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs were developed to be used alongside the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in a Scenario Matrix Architecture. The tourism scenarios will include narratives that provide a consistent logic of the main causal relationships and trends, including those which are traditionally difficult to capture by models.